Oklahoma Economy Double Dipping?

Many Oklahomans were reporting a healthy pickup in economic activity earlier this year.

Things were getting back to normal.

I certainly felt it. Phones were ringing again. A few new clients. Business owners reporting higher revenue. Expensive restaurants were bustling.

What happened? It seems the air has been let out of the tires. I noticed it immediately after the 1,000 point Dow dive. Was it May 5?

A little more than a month ago.

The phones stopped ringing. It’s been 2009 all over again.

Would the economic data reflect what I’m experiencing? I did some research.

Economic data gathered by The Fed for the state Oklahoma and the Fed District that includes Oklahoma clearly shows the pickup and slowdown, but not necessarily a so-called “double dip.” For example, here is the Fed’s index of new orders as reported monthly by manufacturers in Oklahoma. A positive number reflects expansion. The data shows considerable expansion in new orders in 2010, but the rate of expansion dipped to near zero in May.

The Federal Reserve also monitors commercial banks, and publishes a “Financial Stress Index” by region. This data is not available for Oklahoma alone so the chart below is for the entire Kansas City region. This “KC” region includes Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.. As one can see, financial stress had been steadily falling until May — when it rose considerably.

The data does not appear to show we’ve fallen back into the cauldron, thank goodness, but it does seem to reflect what I and many others seem to be feeling and experiencing. That our economic recovery has stalled a bit. Hopefully, just to catch its breath.